On Campus Podcast – The Shifting Tide: Trends in College Enrollment

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1. Introduction to the Podcast (00:00:15) The host welcomes listeners and introduces Dr. Aaron Berger as the guest for the episode.
2. Dr. Berger’s Background (00:01:18) Dr. Berger shares his journey in higher education, starting from his college experience to his current role.
3. Trends Influencing Enrollment (00:05:08) Discussion on factors affecting undergraduate enrollment, including the demographic cliff and public perception of higher education.
4. The Importance of Family Involvement (00:07:24) Dr. Berger emphasizes the significance of family in the college decision process for traditional-age students.
5. Post-Pandemic Enrollment Changes (00:09:05) Exploration of how the pandemic has accelerated changes in enrollment strategies and admissions processes.
6. Impact of Online Courses (00:12:14) Discussion on the growing role of online programs in attracting students and meeting diverse needs.
7. Shifts in Student Interests (00:14:23) Trends show students are choosing more specific and pragmatic fields of study over exploratory options.
8. International Student Enrollment Trends (00:17:48) Dr. Berger outlines current trends in international student enrollment and the challenges faced.
9. Standardized Testing and Admissions (00:19:32) Impact of standardized testing on admissions decisions and the shift towards holistic review processes.
10. The Role of Social Media in Recruitment (00:22:05) Discussion on how social media influences prospective students’ interactions with universities and marketing strategies.
11. The Role of Data in Enrollment Management (24:43) Discussion on the importance of data and analytics in making informed enrollment decisions.
12. Autonomy for Admissions Counselors (27:42) Emphasizing the significance of granting autonomy to entry-level admissions counselors for professional growth.
13. Future Enrollment Trends (29:06) Anticipating cautious decision-making among students and the need for universities to adapt to changing recruitment strategies.

Ed Butch: Welcome to On Campus with CITI Program, the podcast where we explore the complexities of the campus experience with higher education experts and researchers. I’m your host, Ed Butch, and I’m thrilled to have you with us today. Before we get started, I want to quickly note that this podcast is for educational purposes only and is not designed to provide legal advice or guidance. In addition, the views expressed in this podcast are solely those of our guests. Today’s guest is Dr. Aaron Berger, Interim Director of National Recruitment for Kent State University. Welcome to the podcast.

Dr. Aaron Berger: Hey, Ed. Thanks for having me. Really happy to be here. When you reached out, I was like, “Yes, where do I sign? Say less.”

Ed Butch: Fantastic. I appreciate it, definitely. So, I really think this conversation is very timely. So, our last episode, we talked about FAFSA and then we also keep hearing about enrollment cliffs and other issues in the enrollment realm. So, I’m really looking forward to our conversation today. But before we begin, can you tell us a little bit about yourself and your career path?

Dr. Aaron Berger: Certainly. So, I myself am a product of a small private liberal arts college, Marietta College down in Southeast, Ohio, graduated from there in 2009. That’s important because that’s really where my journey in admissions begins. I started there as an admissions counselor for three years. If anybody works in the admissions world, that works for a small private liberal arts based university, they know that you’re in the soup, you’re in the thick of it. You’re wearing multiple hats and you’re learning a lot.

Those three years were pretty formative for me because not only are they happening during the Great Recession, and so you’re having some really interesting conversations with families about affordability even then, but also by having small staff, small resources, you’re really thinking outside the box about your approaches to things. So, from there, that’s really where my love for higher ed really morphs into being more than just a love for Marietta, which still is there, go Pios, but then it transforms into a love for higher ed and wanting people to believe and have the experience of this transformative thing that is education, something I definitely believe deeply in. So, from there, I came to Kent State. That’s really where my journey at Kent State begins.

I did the Masters in Higher Ed Administration Program, where I also worked at the University of Mount Union at the time as an RD and doing first year initiatives, transition work into the university. Then at that time, Kent State was hiring campus tour director. So, with my previous admissions experience, I was able to apply for that and I got that role and I did that for about seven years. So, really getting folks to visit a campus, knowing how important and impactful a campus visit is to somebody’s college search. Then after that seven years, I transitioned into grad work and I’m still a part of that.

So, if anybody’s interested in graduate recruitment or looking at a master’s or a PhD or just retooling and going non-degreeing, just taking a couple courses. So, I spent about four years there and then transitioned back into being the interim director of national recruitment where my foot’s in both waters. I’m immersed in the undergrad scene now again, but then I still am overseeing graduate recruitment. So, that’s the CliffsNotes version of the-

Ed Butch: Perfect.

Dr. Aaron Berger: … what is about the last 15 years of my life professionally.

Ed Butch: Nice, nice. It’s interesting because I think you have both of the “normal” entries into higher ed, right? You have a residence life experience and admissions experience. So, it’s fun that you ended up with both.

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah. Shout out to those hall directors. I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again, that is not for the faint of heart.

Ed Butch: It is not.

Dr. Aaron Berger: But there’s a lot of great experience and a lot of great learning that comes from those jobs.

Ed Butch: That is for sure. I know. That’s how I got into higher ed as well, started in res life and it’s a lot of work. That is for sure. All right. So, moving into, I guess, some of the trends and things that we’re seeing, what factors are you currently seeing that are influencing undergraduate enrollment at universities?

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah, there are several things that we’re worried about or that we’re thinking about that are top of mind for us. Firstly, I feel like ad nauseum, I wouldn’t be an admissions professional worth my weight in salt if I’m not mentioning the demographic cliff that’s approaching, especially as it relates to the State of Ohio. The State of Ohio is going to be seeing a significant decline in college-aged students here coming up in about a year or two. We’re preparing for that and what that means. Just for the lay folks out there, that just means the supply is just not going to be there where we’re used to it being. So, we need to be thinking about how we’re going to attract folks to enroll at Kent State.

So, some of that is planning organizationally as a university, but it’s also trying to do the best that we can with what we have. So, that would be one thing. I also think we’re seeing a huge conversation questioning the public perception of higher ed come into play. So, that really is having an impact on us, this whole conversation of, “Is a college degree worth it still?” So it’s forcing higher ed to have these conversations about making sure our program outcomes are tight, making sure that everything that we’re saying we’re doing, that we’re being truthful in that, and that it’s convincing enough, that we’re having a really hard to heart with 17-year-olds adult students, and then also their families about the need for this and what it could do for you.

Because what we’re finding is it is not only going to be more competitive with other institutions, but now we’re also fighting what we’re calling non-consumption, just people choosing not to do it. So, that would be another thing. Then affordability is, okay, I decide to do this, how am I going to afford it and pay for it?

Ed Butch: Yeah, I think that a lot of that, like I mentioned in our previous episode, we talked a lot about FAFSA and that’s obviously a huge impact when it comes to affordability, but the birth rate’s declining and seeing all that, I mean it’s huge. But I think you mentioned one really important thing, and that is the family part of it. I think for a lot of especially traditionally-aged students that are coming right out of high school, that family aspect and getting them on board, I think, is really important now even more than it ever has been before.

Dr. Aaron Berger: Along with that, something that we’re doing at Kent State is we’re really pushing that family relationship. Whether that’s at the inquiry level or the applicant level, we’re really trying to view parents and families as a really important stakeholder and then developing communication plans with them in mind as well and not just the 17-year-old. Let alone what a 17-year-old might be reading in their email versus not. I feel like it’s like we’re trying to get them to open an email. Well, maybe we have more success if we get dad or mom. So, you’re seeing in places like Kent State really double down into parent and family communication.

Ed Butch: That’s fantastic. Definitely. So, we, I guess, nowadays really think about everything pre and post-pandemic, right?

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah.

Ed Butch: So I guess I want to just ask you, how have you seen enrollment change really post-pandemic over these last few years?

Dr. Aaron Berger: BC, AD, yeah, sort of.

Ed Butch: Yeah.

Dr. Aaron Berger: So there are a couple things that I think the pandemic did for us. I feel like in higher ed, especially at larger institutions, the metaphor is a boat in water and larger institutions might be more that ocean liner, cruise ship that it takes forever for us to steer to really change course. Whereas a smaller institution might be a little more nimble. The pandemic just pretty much said, “No, you got to change and you got to change right now.” So what I think it did is it cracked the code a little bit to say, “Okay, if we need to make changes, we can really make changes and we can make them quickly if we need to.” So I think that is one of the benefits that we saw, not only just within the execution of instruction, but also how we go about what our normal admissions visits are.

One of my proudest moments, and I thought it was outside the box, is when our team came up with what we were calling KSU2U, which is basically pre-recording some things and then taking it to a drive-in, drive-in movie theaters and having people come to area drive-ins. We were in Columbus, Cincinnati, Northwest Ohio, and then some local ones here in Cleveland where people could be in their cars socially distant and still get a Kent State experience from us. We were out there when we were approaching windows to answer financial aid questions.

So, it was really good because you had people at different stages of the funnel. I think we mostly used it as yield, but yield messaging. But it was also really good for just general getting us out there. So, that’s an example, I think, of what the pandemic really did for us. It allowed us to get out of this is always the way we’ve done things, which I think is just a healthy thing to just stiff arm that mindset whenever you can.

Ed Butch: Definitely.

Dr. Aaron Berger: So then after we’ve really kept the best pieces of that. We’ve kept the ability to meet with people virtually, the ability to schedule things, high school visits virtually, or to schedule one-on-ones with families virtually. So, really now it’s finding the best balance of both because I think we know that people want both. They want to have the option to have that. So, now it’s serving two sides of the house and finding that right balance.

Ed Butch: Yeah, I love that. I love the drive-in aspect. I think that was a fantastic program. I was still at Kent State when that was going on. I didn’t participate, but I remember hearing about it and seeing it and everything like that. You mentioned I think a really important component. I think it’s being seen obviously all throughout the different aspects of higher ed and that’s the online virtual aspect. So, what role do you really see the increasing availability of online courses and programs playing in enrollment?

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah, I think especially as people are walking away from that traditional experience, whether it’s choosing non-consumption altogether, choosing not to go to college altogether or just choosing a different pathway, that’s where I think you’re going to see this doubling down into online programming. Depending on the administrative burden for the university, if you already have the technology, if you already have the pieces in place, it’s probably going to be easier to execute than keeping a building warm and keeping a building running where you are paying for having the physical footprint that you have to pay for that.

So, there’s that student aspect where we’re seeing more students really turn to that, but there’s also the different student type as well where we’re going to really transition. We will still be focusing on the traditional first year student, but we’re really looking to diversify where we’re getting students from. So, that might be adult students in the undergraduate space, but also adult students in the grad space. So, you’re probably going to see an uptake in online learning with those folks in mind, trying to meet them where they are.

Ed Butch: Right, definitely. I think a part of this online virtual aspect, and going back to what you said about students really deciding if college is for them and everything as well, are you seeing students that are opting for more specific fields of study or programs over others?

Dr. Aaron Berger: So what we’re seeing and what we’re trying to be careful about is overall, we’re seeing trends with this generation of students being more pragmatic with their college search. So, they’re applying to more places than they ever have before. I think the average is about 8 to 10 institutions at this point that they’re including. Then in those choices, they’re choosing majors that are pretty deliberate, that are going to be less exploratory in nature. So, if they’re deciding to go to college, they want it to be “worth it”.

So, what does worth it mean to them? I think the lowest hanging fruit there is a job. That’s the trend. So, you’re going to see majors really start bubbling up to have a distinct program or a distinct a thing in mind that, oh, this is what you’re going to get from this and it’s going to be less exploratory. I think you’re going to see less undecided students. That group might be a little more susceptible to not enrolling.

Ed Butch: As someone that comes from a liberal arts background, that breaks my heart a little bit.

Dr. Aaron Berger: Me too, man. Me too. This place, college, university, that’s where I learned to be me. It’s where I learned who I was, not taking away from any experiences I had before that, but that’s really where I grew into being an individual. I think colleges and universities owe it to themselves to really dive into that. What do we do in this incubator when people come here? We need to be clear about saying what that is and what that transformative experience is.

Ed Butch: Agreed. Yeah, I mean the key phrase you always hear is critical thinking. Well, we need to talk a little bit more than just you’re getting critical thinking from a liberal arts education. There’s a lot more. I mean, this is a whole another episode or multiple, I think, that we could get into that.

Dr. Aaron Berger: It’s like what does that even mean? Is that if this, then this? Yeah.

Ed Butch: Yeah, exactly. Exactly. But I do understand the students and families wanting them to go into some of those more specific majors and programs though for sure, for sure.

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah. Because I think even parents now are getting to an age where they had an educational experience and they maybe saw the value of it, but they’re cagey because of student debt, because of maybe where they are. So, they knew it was worth it, but they want to be protective of their little one, which I don’t blame them one bit.

Ed Butch: Right, right. Exactly. Completely agree. Completely agree. So, one of the things that I was really involved with, especially when I was at Kent State, was really a lot of international programming and enrollment. So, are you seeing different trends or similar trends when it comes to international student enrollment?

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah, international student enrollment. Then I think it really goes the way of November every four years. That also indicates what’s going to be happening with some of those trends. So, definitely, there’s the geopolitical aspect of it, but there’s also the component of we’re seeing a lot of folks who are just struggling to get appointments to be able to get their I-20. So, it’s good. I think we’re seeing some shifting in where these students are coming from. I think long gone are the days where we were getting a bunch of students from the Middle East and Saudi Arabia and Aramco and all that.

Those days are long gone, but you’re looking at other areas of growth for us, India. China is still there. Then I also know South America is pretty growing. So, the only limitation I would have to that is that with me not working directly in international, I’m really just getting it from their office and getting a feel for what their experiences have been.

Ed Butch: Definitely. Definitely. So, I wanted to, I guess, move into a little bit in terms of some issues, some things that you’re seeing, impacts that are having based on what you’re doing. One of those things that we saw, and this was really I think one of those pandemic issues, was a shift away from, and now some universities moving back to standardized testing like the ACT and the SAT. How have you seen that really impact decisions and conversations that you’ve had with your counselors and everything?

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah, I go back, especially with the pandemic and now that we’re after that, where people still want both and they want the option. That’s where for Kent State, that’s where our holistic admissions review process comes into play and still being test optional. We were already moving that way. I think a lot of folks were, maybe not some, but I think definitely the pandemic forced the hand of that, really lean into who the student was, feeling that we could get a lot more from their transcript and looking at their grade trends, looking at the rigor of their curriculum, looking at the school they’re coming from to see just what type of experience they had available to them.

Then from there, once we take a look at that, really giving them an opportunity, whether it’s through letters of recommendation or whether it’s through a personal narrative essay or other supporting materials. We just felt like we were going to get a better feel for who that student was anyway. For us, it was just about navigating the volume of that because we get tens of thousands of applications every year. So, as long as we could figure that part out, we felt good about the mission and the access piece of admitting somebody into Kent State.

Ed Butch: Yeah, and I think access is a huge part of that as well in terms of maybe a student school offers the ACT or SAT once for free for them, but a lot of families and stuff might not have the ability to pay for them to take it three or four other times like a lot of other students. So, I think access is a huge part of that as well.

Dr. Aaron Berger: When is that free administration of that test occurring and is that student prepared for it in that moment? That puts a huge amount of pressure on the school, on the student, on the family to make sure that that student is then prepared for that in that moment. So, as somebody who struggled taking tests myself personally, it was always a thing for me to say, “Well, how is this really just dictating who I am and what opportunities I have available to me?” It just rubbed me the wrong way.

Ed Butch: Yeah, agreed. Another trend obviously is the impact and the ever increasing really use of social media. How have you seen social media really have an impact on the way that prospective students interact with universities?

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah, I think what you’re seeing with today’s marketing trends, and especially this generation of student, I was talking about how they’re pragmatic before, but they’ve been experiencing nuanced and innovative marketing their entire lives. So, they know when we’re coming to them with something that’s not above board or that’s fake or that’s super manufactured. So, 10 years ago, before we even had social media positions that are just tied to this, now we have those. Now we have whole campaigns and whole communication plans around the execution of social media.

I’m not going to pretend to be an expert in it, but I think some of the fundamentals in it are being authentic, but also not taking it too seriously, using it to push information out, but also using it to be tongue in cheek about something. You have to be fluid enough to take advantage of the latest trend to be able to share in that with your audience. I think sharing authentically and genuinely is the best way to execute that. I think that’s where we’ve gotten some of the best response for us, is having a really good blend of not taking it too serious, but when there is something to share out there as well that is of substance, that we’re picking our battles when it comes to that, that we’re choosing to do that in the moment.

But it’s also that marketing mix, hitting them at the right time with the right message in the right place, in the right mode. So, we have to be thoughtful and intentional about that. You can’t be flippant. You can’t have something that’s half baked, but you also have to be fluid too.

Ed Butch: Right, exactly. Before I was really involved in the recruitment and stuff like that, I didn’t really understand what marketing campaigns really meant, but they truly are campaigns that you are scheduling things out, this social post and that email and everything, it’s really fascinating from someone that didn’t come from that background to see how all of that works.

Dr. Aaron Berger: And then coming from a larger university as well, really being able to also embrace the spontaneous too. You have this campaign, but you also have to have room to take advantage of something when a situation presents itself.

Ed Butch: For sure. That is for sure. All right. Last thing on trends I want to talk about in terms of managing enrollment is how do you really see the use of data and analytics coming into play with managing that?

Dr. Aaron Berger: It’s going to be everything and it should be everything. One of the reasons I say that is as our jobs are becoming more and more difficult, we’re only going to be as good as the data that we have to make those decisions. We have to base these decisions on more than gut feelings. Just because you think this is going to work well, something has to be indicating that for us. So, we need to be thoughtful about how we’re collecting that data. We need to be thoughtful about how we’re using it in order to reach decisions. A really good example of that was this year as we were planning our admissions travel, we were working with our enrollment management data team to identify all of our top performing high schools.

Where are people submitting applications? Where are they coming from? And then giving that over to our admissions counselors to really have some autonomy in their territories to say, “Okay, these are where people are coming from. This is where we’re going to focus our energy in terms of where we’re going to visit, but also maybe weaving in a couple places where we see some opportunity.” So it’s not just doing everything that indicates by a pure volume standpoint, but we’re seeing also opportunities too and data plays a role in that as well. Then using all those data points, it’s also identifying who is engaged for us. So, I said this in my introduction, but we know campus visitors have the highest likelihood to enroll at your institution.

So, what are you doing with your visit data? How are admissions counselors following up with visitors to ask them about how their visit was? Did it live up to their expectation? Did they have any unanswered questions? So really data is a part of it, your everyday life. There’s a phrase that’s being tossed around here in our office about professional calisthenics, and part of those calisthenics are looking at the snapshot of your territory and what’s going on in your world that you need to be following up with that jumps out at you. Really, every individual in this office, you need to be focusing on, “What is it? What are the opportunities for you for that day?”

Ed Butch: Yeah. I think that’s great that you’re giving your admissions counselors that autonomy, right? Because they tend to be entry-level positions, new people that are newer in their careers. A lot of people in those entry-level roles don’t necessarily have a lot of autonomy. So, the fact that you’re giving that to them, I think, is huge for them as professionals.

Dr. Aaron Berger: It’s not just served up on a silver platter. It’s also like let’s talk about this. So, there is definitely some guided context and follow up that’s happening through one-on-ones. I want to hear from them what they’re thinking about that and then present your plan and what you’re thinking. We might make adjustments to it because of X, Y, Z thing that you may not have considered. But yeah, I really value that. I definitely think I have things to learn from them just as much as I think they could benefit from learning from me about.

Ed Butch: Definitely, that mutual side of supervision and mentoring and things like that, that’s great. So, one of the things that I always like to end on with my guest is have you become fortune teller. I guess, I want to know what do you foresee as some of the major undergraduate enrollment trends over the next decade?

Dr. Aaron Berger: So I think we’re going to push into more of the same, where it’s people are going to be super cautious about their choice moving forward. I think universities are going to have to respond to that cautiousness and how we embrace that and how we address that. I think FAFSA has to get figured out. I foresee that it started off super bumpy, and then I think hopefully, the wrinkles get ironed out that we start seeing FAFSA submissions increase. That would be super helpful. So, I think that will tend to happen. But again, we’re really looking then into the traditional first year student and how we’re going after them, but also looking at an adult student, also looking at other ways to engage with students who are not necessarily the first that come to mind when you think about recruiting a class coming in.

Because I’m also thinking about the student who maybe didn’t choose to go to college during the pandemic. So, there’s a number of those individuals too that we can go after now that we’re five years down the road. So, I think you’re looking at, “How are we looking at doing things differently?” It’s going to be an exciting time and it’s going to be challenging, but it’s also going to lay bare and force a lot of change, which I think has been needing to come for a while now.

Ed Butch: Right, yeah. Gone are the days that the 95% of the focus is on those 17-year-olds coming out of high school, 18-year-olds, and really have to start to expand into what a new first-time, full-time student actually is.

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah.

Ed Butch: Well, thank you for the conversation. I really appreciate it. Some great information and sharing your experiences. So, thanks for being here today with me.

Dr. Aaron Berger: Yeah, of course. Thanks for having me.

Ed Butch: I invite all of our listeners to visit citiprogram.org to learn more about our courses and webinars on research, ethics, compliance, and higher education. I look forward to bringing you more expert guests to discuss what’s happening on campus.